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Meteorologist Wayne Mahar's Weather Outlook for the Mirabito Outdoor Classic
Syracuse, NY, (Saturday, February 6, 2010)
As the Mirabito Outdoor Classic continues to draw near, the Syracuse Crunch have turned to Chief Meteoroloigst Wayne Mahar for a look at the weather conditions throughout the rink building process and on the big day - February 20. Mahar is a hockey enthusiast, with a niche for weather here in Central New York. In January of 1985, Mahar become Syracuse's first full time meteorologist, which sparked an era of making weather forecasting throughout the area much more serious. In addition to his on-air time on Action News, Mahar is President of Precision Weather Service, a private weather consulting firm. Follow Wayne's weather outlook for the Mirabito Outdoor Classic here right up through the moment the puck drops on February 20.
Weather Outlook (February 6, 2010) - We’re now just under two weeks away from the Mirabito Outdoor Classic at the State Fairgrounds between the Syracuse Crunch and the Binghamton Senators; scheduled for Saturday February 20 at 1:00pm.
We’ll, until now, game day has been so far off that “actual” forecasting was impossible, so instead, we went back and checked weather averages and records to give us an “idea” of what we might expect on February 20. Now though, we’re starting to come into range of some actual forecasting, or at least getting somewhat of an idea of what way we are “trending”. For this, I’m analyzing the jet stream pattern across the Western Hemisphere, (the jet stream being a strong core of winds in the upper atmosphere). I’m also checking other weather variables like pressure systems and tracking where the coldest, arctic air is right now and is it moving.
With many days still remaining before the game, we must still consider historical averages. A reminder, the averages for game day based on the past 107 years…since records began in Syracuse are...
So, where does that leave us? My “early forecast for game day," subject to change of course, is this.
THE FIRST FORECAST FOR GAME DAY - Partly to mostly cloudy sky. Light snow or snowshowers possible. Early morning temperatures 15-20 degrees rising to an afternoon (game time) high temperature of 27-34 degrees with a southerly breeze.
As we draw closer to February 20, I’ll start evolving from “averages” to an actual forecast. Keep checking back and stay tuned. And remember, when game day gets here, if there is any snow or rain around, you can track it with the CNYcentral.com Triple Doppler Radar at www.cnycentral.com.
- Wayne Mahar
Chief Meteorologist
CNYcentral.com
President, Precision Weather Service
315 638-1666
www.precisionweather.com
Weather Outlook (February 6, 2010) - We’re now just under two weeks away from the Mirabito Outdoor Classic at the State Fairgrounds between the Syracuse Crunch and the Binghamton Senators; scheduled for Saturday February 20 at 1:00pm.
For any sporting event outdoors, weather is always a concern, and it’s an extra big concern when you’re dealing with a sporting event that is “normally” played indoors. Also of concern is the fact that there very well could be 20,000 people attending this game, and it’s in Syracuse, and its winter, and who knows how cold or snowy it could be!
We’ll, until now, game day has been so far off that “actual” forecasting was impossible, so instead, we went back and checked weather averages and records to give us an “idea” of what we might expect on February 20. Now though, we’re starting to come into range of some actual forecasting, or at least getting somewhat of an idea of what way we are “trending”. For this, I’m analyzing the jet stream pattern across the Western Hemisphere, (the jet stream being a strong core of winds in the upper atmosphere). I’m also checking other weather variables like pressure systems and tracking where the coldest, arctic air is right now and is it moving.
Still, 10 to 14 days out in the weather forecasting business can be an eternity. So many things can change. Here is what I am thinking right now though…
From a technical standpoint, I feel the upper atmospheric high and low pressure systems and winds may strengthen and weaken at times from now to game day, but the “general” pattern of low pressure over eastern Canada and Newfoundland, and another in the Gulf of Alaska will continue. This is essentially the pattern we’ve had for the past couple of weeks promoting seasonable or seasonably cold temperatures and changeable skies with frequent bouts of small disturbances and some lake effect snow at times. At this time, I don’t see a significant warm up, and, at this time, the odds favor snow over any rain.
With many days still remaining before the game, we must still consider historical averages. A reminder, the averages for game day based on the past 107 years…since records began in Syracuse are...
Average high temperature: 35
Average low temperature: 16
Let’s do some more math before we come to an actual forecast. What if you average the 107 year normals to our “averages” over the past 5 years? Here is what you get...
Average high temperature: 32.5
Average low temperature: 14.5
More math. Over the past week or two, our average daytime high has been in the mid and upper 20s with nighttime lows in the mid and upper teens. This is seasonably cold compared to long term average. This current pattern must also be considered.
THE FIRST FORECAST FOR GAME DAY - Partly to mostly cloudy sky. Light snow or snowshowers possible. Early morning temperatures 15-20 degrees rising to an afternoon (game time) high temperature of 27-34 degrees with a southerly breeze.
As we draw closer to February 20, I’ll start evolving from “averages” to an actual forecast. Keep checking back and stay tuned. And remember, when game day gets here, if there is any snow or rain around, you can track it with the CNYcentral.com Triple Doppler Radar at www.cnycentral.com.
- Wayne Mahar
Chief Meteorologist
CNYcentral.com
President, Precision Weather Service
315 638-1666
www.precisionweather.com